All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

Table of Contents
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week Overview of the threat for the next few days Outlook for Friday, June 14 Outlook Summary Outlook Images overview tornado 2% wind 15% hail 15% Detailed Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas Northern High Plains/northern Rockies Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England Outlook for Saturday, June 15 Outlook Summary Outlook Images overview tornado 2% wind 15% hail 15% Detailed Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA…AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA Synopsis Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI Northern High Plains Outlook for Sunday, June 16 Outlook Summary Outlook Images overview any severe 5% Detailed Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN Synopsis Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes Outlook for Monday, June 17 Outlook Images any severe 15% Detailed Outlook DISCUSSION Outlook for Tuesday, June 18 Outlook Images any severe low / uncertain Detailed Outlook DISCUSSION Outlook for Wednesday, June 19 Outlook Images any severe low / uncertain Detailed Outlook DISCUSSION Outlook for Thursday, June 20 Outlook Images any severe low / uncertain Detailed Outlook DISCUSSION Outlook for Friday, June 21 Outlook Images any severe low / uncertain Detailed Outlook DISCUSSION National Risk Overview Your Severe Outlook Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected. About Severe Weather Outlook . com FAQs

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, June 14

Saturday, June 15

Sunday, June 16

Monday, June 17

Tuesday, June 18

Wednesday, June 19

Thursday, June 20

Friday, June 21

Outlook for Friday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (11)

tornado 2%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (12)

wind 15%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (13)

hail 15%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (14)

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141232

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening.

Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas

A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range.

Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two.

A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight.

Northern High Plains/northern Rockies

Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts.

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England

A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary concerns.

Outlook Images

overview

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (15)

tornado 2%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (16)

wind 15%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (17)

hail 15%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (18)

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140451

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA…AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary concerns.

Synopsis

A mean upper ridge will exist over the Southeast CONUS on Saturday, with a broad but strong upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains. Between these large-scale features, embedded disturbances associated with ongoing storms will affect parts of the Mid MS Valley during the day, moving toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across MT and WY and into the western Dakotas, providing a focus for afternoon/evening storms. South of this area, a warm front will lift across MO, IA, and eastern NE, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely along this boundary. The stronger instability in this region may favor large hail, areas of wind damage or a brief tornado. Isolated storms capable of locally gusts winds or marginal hail may extend as far south as western TX within the diurnal surface trough.

Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI

Areas of thunderstorms appear probable early on Saturday from parts of SD into northern MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection and in association with the midlevel, convectively enhanced shortwave trough. The severe risk with this activity will be low, with perhaps small hail or gusty winds and likely weakening trend in this regime.

This progressive wave will help push the warm front northward into IA through 00Z and into southern MN and western WI late. Just behind this wave, a plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast across KS, nosing into southeast NE and perhaps southwest IA by 00Z. The result may be a small-scale area of favorable instability and shear where the warmer air interacts with the warm front, and isolated supercells cannot be ruled out by late afternoon and into the evening from eastern NE into IA. Marginal, elevated hail may extend northeastward into MN/WI overnight with the aid of a 50 kt low-level jet.

Northern High Plains

Strong height falls and a cold front will arrive into eastern MT during the late afternoon, supporting scattered storms. Lengthening hodographs along with the favorable large-scale lift should favor a zone of concentrated strong to severe storms by early evening from northeast MT into western ND. Cells capable of hail may occur initially, with increasing linear mode into bows with wind potential as the cold front surges late.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 16

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

Outlook Images

overview

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (19)

any severe 5%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (20)

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140700

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

Synopsis

An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID.

At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast. Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI, with generally weak lift for much of the day points west.

Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes

Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day.

To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front, along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of hail through the night.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (21)

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (22)

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (23)

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (24)

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (25)

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 15
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 16
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, June 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

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All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

FAQs

How accurate is a 15-day forecast? ›

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Is a 5% tornado risk high? ›

Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a low likelihood (or a 5 to 14% probability) of tornadoes; scattered tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible.

What is a severe weather outlook? ›

Public Severe Weather Outlooks

The Public Severe Weather Outlooks (PWO) are issued when a potentially significant or widespread tornado outbreak is expected.

What time of year is severe weather most common? ›

While severe thunderstorms can occur any month of the year, the peak Severe Weather Season is during the spring months of March, April, and May.

How accurate is weather 8 days out? ›

A 5-day forecast is generally reliable for planning purposes, a 7-day forecast offers a decent overview with some uncertainties, and a 10-day forecast should be used more as a guide for potential weather patterns rather than a precise prediction.

How accurate is AccuWeather forecast? ›

AccuWeather/ABC weathercasts are the most accurate overall, in every market, with a percentage average of 14.1% greater accuracy than CBS, 18% greater accuracy than NBC and 20.4% greater accuracy than FOX.

Has there been an F6 tornado? ›

There has never been an (E)F-6 tornado recorded, but they're technically not impossible. An F-6 tornado would need to reach wind speeds beyond 318 mph; however, the highest wind speeds ever recorded on Earth were 302 mph.

Is an EF5 tornado worse than an F5? ›

The old scale lists an F5 tornado as wind speeds of 261–318 mph (420–512 km/h), while the new scale lists an EF5 as a tornado with winds above 200 mph (322 km/h), found to be sufficient to cause the damage previously ascribed to the F5 range of wind speeds.

Is an EF5 tornado survivable? ›

There is no such thing as guaranteed safety inside a tornado. Freak accidents happen; and the most violent tornadoes can level and blow away almost any house and its occupants. Extremely violent EF5 tornadoes are very rare, though. Even violent tornadoes have a survival rate of at least 99%.

When was the last EF5 tornado? ›

The nation's last EF-5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

What does 10 tornado risk mean? ›

Reaching the 10% threshold indicates a notable increase in the tornado threat. These forecasts are often associated with enhanced or moderate risk days, where several tornadoes are possible, and the potential for a stronger tornado (EF2 or greater) increases.

What does MDT mean in weather? ›

MDT – Moderate risk – this level corresponds to 30-45% probability of organized severe weather occurring in a 40 km radius from a location. Additionally, 15% or higher probability of extremely severe weather is expected. Organized severe weather is expected, moderate intensity and coverage.

What state has the most tornadoes? ›

Texas leads the nation in the number of tornadoes that occur each year on average, followed by Kansas. Texas leads the nation for the average number each year only because of its size.

What is the number one weather related cause of death in the world? ›

By studying how daily death rates vary with temperature in selected cities, scientists have found that extreme heat contributes to far more deaths than the official death certificates might suggest.

What month has the perfect weather? ›

May is a lovely time of the year to visit California with spring temperatures, pleasant warm days and blue skies. The crowds of summer are yet to arrive and it can be a more affordable time to travel.

Is a 14-day weather forecast accurate? ›

Even now five-day weather forecasts are about 90% accurate, but 10-day forecasts are more like 50%. Anything beyond that becomes speculative. The Met Office and others do now issue long-term forecasts, but these give probabilities rather than making exact predictions.

How accurate is a forecast a week away? ›

The more days in advance the forecast, the more likely it is that the weather will change. How accurate is weather a week out? The success rate for seven-day forecasts is below 80%.

How accurate are 45 day forecasts? ›

An assessment from the Post determined that the 45-day forecasts were not even able to predict trends accurately, and that, although the forecasts did not decrease in accuracy with time, the forecasts were so far off even in the short range as to be useless.

What does 40 chance of rain mean? ›

If a forecast for a given county says that there is a 40% chance of rain this afternoon, then there is a 40% chance of rain at any point in the county from noon to 6 p.m. local time. This point probability of precipitation is predetermined and arrived at by the forecaster by.

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